Western Balkans: Articles

This paper concentrates on economic and social convergence in the region and the economic and institutional aspects of EU accession.

This article concludes the presentations made at and the main lessons drawn from the international conference on Western Balkan enlargement held on December 6, 2021, within the framework of the pan-European dialogue on the future of Europe.

The Open Balkan initiative has been partially supported by the leadership of the Western Balkans. If years ago it seemed a political whim, currently it constitutes a highly conditional factor from a two-level perspective: firstly, in the bilateral relations between the Balkan countries and, secondly, in relation to the Euro-Atlantic orientation of these countries for which the EU foreign policy had implemented the Berlin Process since 2014. In fact, the two processes have key differences, since for the Open Balkan initiative the priority interest resides in economic cooperation, while the Berlin process seeks to resolve, before their accession to the EU, many divergences of the Western Balkan countries, issues of a more complex nature than that of economic and cross-border cooperation.

The paper finds that the EU’s enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans has largely disappeared from the Union’s agenda as constant crises have taken priority. It deplores a politicization of a supposedly primarily technical accession process and a diminution of the EU’s credibility in the region. To reinvigorate this process, it proposes two measures: changes to voting rules in the Council and the regionalization of the accession processes of the Western Balkans.

The authors claim that the integration of the Western Balkans in the EU is in the real security interest of all European states. A period in which short-sighted national interests were dominant must give way to a concerted and effective EU enlargement.

This article evaluates public perceptions of the European Union (EU) in Montenegro and Serbia as the front running EU membership candidates. blic perceptions of the EU in the Western Balkans are (re)created and juxtaposed against perceptions of other external actors, notably Russia and China. This has led to the EU’s ‘power of attraction’ being diminished in the Western Balkans. Rival perceptions of China and Russia as ‘less demanding’ partners than the EU, and the slowing down of EU’s enlargement agenda have also contributed to this trend

Nothing that Southeast Europe has become a new geopolitical battleground, this policy brief suggests pushing for a greater partnership responsibility between the European Union and its immediate neighborhood, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The paper issues several recommendations to enhance Brussels’ latest proposal on the Strategic Compass and increase its credibility in charting an independent course through mounting geopolitical headwinds.

This event summary, following a joint webinar held by the Slovenian Ministry of Defence and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), aims to discuss how the Western Balkans can play a more active role in CSDP initiatives and to make a contribution to the dialogue phase of the Strategic Compass process.

Que s'est-il passé à partir de 2015 aux frontières de l'Europe ? Comment les États membres et l'Union ont-ils organisé leurs réponses ? Quels étaient les cadres mentaux qui guidaient les décisions des uns et des autres ? Cette perspective propose de suivre le regard, subjectif, d'un ancien conseiller de Donald Tusk, insider de premier plan dans cette séquence.

With no real progress in EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, or effective solutions to deal with the region’s fundamental problems, the Union’s promises of support and a shared future are starting to ring hollow. It is unclear where enlargement policy goes from here.

This paper aims to uncover what lies behind its motto “Together. Resilient. Europe”, while analysing how its presidency will shape the EU, as well as the enlargement policy, in the second half of 2021.

Analyse de la situation après la publication de la communication de la Commission " Une perspective d'élargissement crédible ainsi qu'un engagement de l'Union européenne renforcé pour les Balkans occidentaux " COM/2018/065 final.

European Western Balkans summarises the most important events and developments in the Western Balkans in 2021.

This article lists the six Western Balkan nations wishing to join the European Union, and why there seems to be hesitance on the part of the union to allow these new members access

European Union governments reaffirmed on Tuesday (14 December) their promise to allow six Balkan countries to one day join the bloc following heated disagreements during negotiations.

The (foreign) political alignment with EU positions in international affairs is not only an obligation entailed by the EU accession process, but it essentially tests the political and practical commitment of the WB countries to deal with the wider international context. The percentage of WB countries' compliance with the High Representative's declarations and Council decisions varies showing that the level of compliance does not quite match the status of states in the EU accession process.

The destructive effects of state capture in the Western Balkans undermine the EU enlargement process. Using the case of Serbia, the brief shows how state capture mechanisms selectively strengthen the ruling party and its leadership while weakening the opposition and independent institutions. Tackling this process, through strengthening accountability structures and increasing transparency, is identified as a key priority for the EU enlargement policy.

The narrative of prospective EU enlargement has recently been dominated by ‘enlargement fatigue’. Today, this narrative has changed to one of ‘enlargement resistance'. This paper argues that the policy of EU enlargement is now contingent on the double resistance offered by internal fragmentation and external inability to comply with accession criteria. As a result, enlargement is likely to stall, even in those WB countries apparently closest to meeting the criteria for accession.

The author gives an approach to the current situation of the Western Balkans from the European perspective: the general context of the EU in relation to this region, the challenges the EU High Representative is facing in relation to the current blockade situation in the Balkans and the need for the EU to gain credibility in this region.

Aspiring EU members must resolve outstanding disputes as part of the membership process. This has proved a powerful tool over the years. Resolving bilateral problems, including border disputes, is especially crucial in the WB, where they are numerous. Should the EU’s influence wane, nationalist leaders will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring countries.

This article considers various strategies that the EU could employ to recalibrate the accession of the Western Balkans, notwithstanding the need for sincere reforms in the aspiring member states.

This paper explores pertinent questions regarding the future of the EU in the Western Balkans and vice versa. After providing a brief overview and analysis of the current state of the enlargement process, the paper will explore how the impact of the recently revised enlargement methodology can be maximised. Moreover, it will discuss opportunities for deepening the ties between the EU and the region, going beyond the formal accession process and procedures.

Citizens of countries in the WB are still, overall, positive about the prospects of their countries joining the EU. However, the path to EU membership is a long one. This paper analyses the main factors of the current situation and offers suggestions on the way forward.

For centuries the Western Balkans region has been a place of origin for migration into Europe as well as a transit route to Europe for migrants coming from other regions of the world. The 2015–16 migration crisis brought the region into the spotlight as large numbers of migrants used the Balkan migration route on their way to Western Europe.

The 2020s have got off to quite a rocky start globally, and especially for Europeans. The ongoing crises, beginning with the Covid-19 pandemic, and followed by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, rising inflation and the energy crisis, have created an atmosphere of continual instability and uncertainty for European citizens. The Western Balkans region, in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood and geographically close to Ukraine, has also been affected by all these challenges. This article examines the current most pressing issues in the region and the possible outcomes of them.

Cet article propose d’étudier les conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine sur la situation géopolitique dans les Balkans occidentaux. Contrairement au reste de ­l’Europe, les réactions des États et des sociétés des Balkans vis-à-vis de l’Ukraine et de la Russie sont divisées pour plusieurs raisons. Tout d’abord, du fait des rivalités géopolitiques internes à la région – que ce soit au Kosovo, en Serbie, au Monténégro ou en Bosnie-Herzégovine – qui expliquent le soutien d’une partie des Serbes à la politique de Vladimir Poutine.

This brief constitutes the final output of the GLOBSEC Vulnerability Index mapping susceptibility to foreign malign influence in eight Central European and Western Balkan countries (Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia). Its primary aims are to: 1) summarize the key factors enabling and facilitating foreign influence across the two regions, 2) identify common points of resilience, and 3) suggest practical recommendations and best practices for international stakeholders.

This opinion piece claims that progress that was made in the Western Balkans region in the 2000s — toward peaceful, prosperous, multiethnic states — is being undone, and the space is wide open for troublemakers. The time has come for NATO and the EU to work together and take action to arrest decline and protect the progress that was made.

The article also tries to show how the current projection of religion has severe repercussions in the region as it is directly linked with the issue of foreign fighters that present a new challenge for the Western Balkans.

Speech at the 11th Meeting in the “EU-Russia” Series held by the Russian International Affairs Council and the Embassies of the Chair Countries of the Council of the European Union.

This report examines the factors contributing to the WB instability in the age of Covid-19 and questions if the region will be the ground for a renewed geopolitical competition. It tries to answer the question on how can the Balkans exit the transition and find a sustainable balance between all these tensions.

This paper focuses on three policy areas perceived to be both the most important channels and the clearest expressions of China’s influence in the Western Balkans—foreign policy, physical infrastructure and connectivity, and investment. It finds that while the attention has been on China’s growing presence in the region, the extent to which the EU has since moved to re-assert its leadership in the Balkans has gone under the radar.

Russia’s resurgent presence in the Western Balkans and the impact this could have on European Union enlargement have been the focus of increased attention in recent years. The delay in the accession process, and the subsequent disillusionment, allowed Russia to reassert its influence and strengthen its role in the region. Addressing these misperceptions and promoting the full scope of the EU’s economic contribution will be a crucial challenge for the EU in its efforts to keep the enlargement process on track and instability at bay.

European decision-makers have been increasingly claiming that the EU should move on to contain the negative influence in the Western Balkans of other external actors. The net effect of this shift in discourse is the resurfacing of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans on the European political agenda. While the renewed EU interest in the Western Balkans is without doubt positive, it rests on several myths and misconceptions. This policy brief identifes these ideas and articulates some policy recommendations.

Through its enlargement policy, the EU seeks to foster democratisation in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, also called Western Balkans six (WB6). Despite years of efforts, the EU’s policies have not brought about the expected change. The report identifies eight flaws in the EU’s strategies, policies and their implementation that are believed to contribute to stabilitocracy formation.

In the Western Balkans, issues linking trust and democracy acquire particular importance and urgency in the wake of the Covid crisis. This brief shows that the pandemic has exacerbated the region’s issues regarding trust in public institutions. It finds that the reticence of publics to undergo vaccination is directly linked with mistrust in governments.

This policy brief puts forward three recommendations that take account of the current state of the EU, the rule of law situation and democratic backsliding of the pre-accession countries in the Western Balkans. These three points include prioritizing enlargement, increased promotion of rule of law, and a renewal of transatlantic cooperation.

Three decades since the beginning of democratization processes, the Western Balkan countries have built a democratic façade. However, political elites rely on informal structures, clientelism, and control of the media to undermine democracy. The core argument of this study is that the structural weaknesses of democratic institutions are purposefully exploited by domestic regimes, which are able to misuse these fragile institutions to their advantage.

The countries of the WB have experienced more than a decade of democratic backsliding. Analysis of survey results revealed substantial changes in citizens’ political attitudes with increased support for a strong political leader. The results suggest that these tendencies can better be explained by the economic insecurity thesis than by the cultural backlash thesis.

Der Westbalkan ist spätestens seit dem Sommer des Jahres 2015 von großer Bedeutung für die europäische Flüchtlings- und Migrationspolitik. Viele Geflüchtete passieren auf ihrem Weg in die EU die Länder der Region.

The Western Balkan countries are in a hybrid status quo on their way to democracy. Traditional arguments related to cost–benefit calculations, national identity or conflicting objectives fail to explain the situation. The paper analyses the limited impact of the EU’s political conditionality in the Western Balkans with rampant state capture and hypothesises that EU conditionality has effectively contributed to the consolidation of such detrimental governance patterns.

The objective of this article is to confirm the rise of Russian influence in the Western Balkan countries, and to determine how and to what extent it has impacted the region. For this purpose, a qualitative analysis is conducted with secondary data from many sources, including reports and policy events; the analysis also includes a rhetorical review of public appearances by the political leadership of the Western Balkan countries.

The Berlin Process offers the most significant and institutionalised roadmap for the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU. The direct involvement of EU institutions and member states, especially Germany and France, in the Process has transformed it into a trustworthy path to integration. The countries of the Western Balkans are still facing many difficulties and need to undertake serious reforms, especially in the fields of the fight against corruption and enforcing the rule of law.

Die Covid-19-Pandemie verschärfte alle strukturellen Probleme und Dilemmata, die bereits auf dem Westbalkan sichtbar waren. Im Mittelpunkt des Artikels stehen aktuelle politische und gesellschaftliche Veränderungen im Covid-19-Jahr 2020, darunter Phänomene wie die politische Ausnutzung der Krise, Wahlen und deren Auswirkungen, die Verbreitung von Verschwörungstheorien oder politische Alternativen zum Status Quo.

This policy brief underscores outstanding issues that emerged during the COVID-19 crisis with possible long-term consequences on the functioning of democracy and rule of law in the six countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.

The Covid-19 affected countries across the globe have adopted a wide scale of measures and policies range from opting for relatively loose ones as in Sweden, to extreme restrictive measures adopted in Hungary. The Western Balkan countries’ approach, although differing significantly in each country, belongs among the most restrictive ones.

The global Covid-19 pandemic and the measures taken by governments around the world constitute a major rupture to the “business as usual”, and this includes the Western Balkans, too. This analysis establishes the Covid-19 pandemic as a critical juncture, a crisis that can permanently shake up institutions and societies.

In the Western Balkans, as elsewhere around the world, governments took extraordinary measures to effectively contain the spread of COVID-19, measures that entailed serious restrictions to individual freedoms. The worst fear, that some of the Western Balkan leaderships may retain extraordinary powers indefinitely, has not been confirmed. However, constitutionally prescribed procedures were disregarded and the operation of formal and informal mechanisms of checks and balances ignored.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the six Western Balkans amidst a reacceleration of economic activity and promising economic outlook for 2020. The containment measures and external shock are expected to result in a notable contraction across the region. The Western Balkan economies are particularly affected through several channels.

This paper aims to explore the contribution and impact of higher education on the economic growth of the Western Balkan countries, with special emphasis on Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Hausman – Taylor IV model was used to derive statistical results, while the data used are panel data for the period 2000-2020. The results obtained from this research provide evidence that higher education in these countries has a positive impact on economic growth, namely on the GDP growth of these countries.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of government expenditure on economic growth and the impact of tax income on government spending. The study examines Western Balkans nations from 2000 to 2020, using several econometric models and analyses to determine the link between these factors. The research comprises six Western Balkan nations. According to the findings of this study, there is a positive and statistically significant association between government expenditure and economic development in the Western Balkan nations over the studied period.

This research aims to provide an empirical assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy sustainability factors, like fiscal deficit and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries and East European Union Countries, using panel-level data for the yearly time span from 2000-2021.

The WB countries have been lagging behind in their transition process, which started more than 30 years ago. According to the author, the real problem is that they have not been able to create efficient institutions, and this hamper economic growth, as the countries do not attract enough foreign direct investment (FDI). A lack of FDI affects the development of a functioning market economy, competitiveness, and convergence.

This report builds upon the comprehensive monitoring anti-corruption policy implementation methodology, in order to analyse corrosive capital challenges, define regional priorities, and identify potential common patterns in the WB region. The authors recommend that Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia re-examine their bilateral investment treaties and international agreements in terms of potential loopholes, and introduce strong internal policies in the public authorities.

The high outward mobility from countries in the Western Balkan region is often seen as linked to labour market imbalances and low utilisation of human capital. This paper examines the period 2005-2019 and considers mobility from five of the WB countries to the then EU15. The results confirm the importance of wage gaps as a pull factor for outward mobility.

A semi-annual report on recent economic developments and the outlook in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia). This edition looks at the economic and social impacts of COVID-19 on the region and the prospects for a sustained and green recovery amid continued uncertainty.

The new momentum for the accession process towards European Union depends on both economic results and political will. This article empirically analyses whether country rank based on transition qualities, respond to country rank based on labour market indicators (such as Average monthly gross wages).

The paper presents key issues identified in the five pillars of the Green agenda, examines certain cross-cutting aspects of the green transition that could be essential for achieving a climate-neutral Western Balkans (WB), and provides concrete measures and proposals for effective Green agenda implementation.

This policy brief discusses the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, which is a promising tool for fostering climate and energy policy measures in the Western Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. The brief asks how the Green Agenda can work in the interest of both the objective of a climate-neutral continent and the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries.

Although China attempts to present itself as a leader of the fight against climate change – and, in some aspects, is taking initiative in this respect – through the Belt and Road Initiative the country has lent support to many ‘dirty’ projects in the energy infrastructure sector. This is also the case in the Western Balkans, where Chinese banks and energy companies have invested in coal power plants. Western Balkan countries need to improve their energy infrastructure and build new capacities. An obvious solution to this issue is the extension of their coal mines and plants, but this comes with complications.

The adoption, implementation and enforcement of Chapter 27 of the EU acquis on Environment is an obligation for accessing countries. Reducing the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) is a priority which is strongly interlinked with energy, transport and health policies, among others.

Launched in 2014, the Western Balkan 6 Initiative (also known as the Berlin Process) aims to support the six Contracting Parties of the Energy Community in Southeast Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in strengthening regional cooperation and driving sustainable growth and jobs.

As the European Union adopts tougher climate goals for 2030, aiming for net-zero emissions by mid-century, the bloc’s next-door neighbours in the Western Balkans are struggling to keep up and face growing difficulties in the transition to a green economy.

This energy policy reviews energy policies and strategies in the Western Balkan region, and also covers important cross-cutting topics such as co-operation and energy trade, oil and gas transportation, and the links between energy and poverty. It identifies and assesses the reforms that are still needed to deliver efficient, modernised energy systems that can assist economic development and address energy poverty.